COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 23, 2021…7:50 P.M. EDT

COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 23, 2021…7:50 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Good evening,
Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models this evening, still indicate an area of low pressure forecast to develop just off the DELMARVA area by Sunday morning.  This low will move off the coast after having moved through the Gulf Coast states (the same low responsible for today’s severe weather), and slide off the coast early on Sunday.  Based on current forecast motion, the low will continue pretty much on an E to ENE motion, and is forecast to move well away from the coastal areas within a 24 hour period. Currently, this low is forecast to bring surface winds of T.S. force over the marine area, which appear to be restricted to the SE quadrant of the low.  The strongest winds in the NW portion of the storm should remain mostly in an offshore flow.  The system will draw some cold air down from the north, and some light snowfall totals are forecast over a portion of New England and the NE.  Based on the comparison of snowfall total maps and liquid precipitation, it appears the main precip. should be in rainfall.  The storm will also produce some large waves, with the main threat being to commercial shipping and offshore fishing as the system moves away from the coast, however small craft should remain in port until the system clears.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES ANIMATION MAPS


ECMWF SURFACE WIND SPEED ANIMATION MAP

ECMWF TOTAL PRECIPITATION MAP ANIMATION

ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
GOES 16 EAST COAST SATELLITE LOOP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)
Band 13 - 10.3 µm - Clean Longwave Window - IR - 23 Apr 2021 - 2341 UTC
I am going to try to be up early enough to issue a synopsis for tomorrows severe weather event:


You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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