CURRENT DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 03, 2021…8:15 P.M. EDT

CURRENT DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 03, 2021…8:15 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS NEEDED AND APPRECIATED

Good evening to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The SPC has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS…LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI…TENNESSEE…ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday from the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau regions. This will include a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

The entire SPC DAY 2 Severe Outlook will be linked to the very first SPC graphic, so you may view it in its entirety. 

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
day2otlk_1730-2
TORNADO OUTLOOK
day2probotlk_1730_torn-1
HAIL OUTLOOK
day2probotlk_1730_hail-1
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
WIND OUTLOOK
day2probotlk_1730_wind-1
Based on my analysis of the current SPC DAY 2 Outlook, and the indices mentioned, the atmosphere is forecast to become strongly de-stabilized.  Based on the SPC outlook, little capping is expected across the ENHANCED risk area, along with a combination of steep mid level lapse rates, dewpoints ranging from 60F to 70F, and MLCAPE values of 2000 – 3000 j/kg.  I’ll post some of the forecast values from the NAM-WRF recent run further in this synopsis.  However, based on what I have seen, should the current forecast hold, I would not rule out the probability of SPC increasing the severe risk to MODERATE, over a portion of the ENHANCED risk area.

The following outlined maps indicate where the highest probability currently lies for the strongest of the severe weather, and tornado activity.  As a reminder, these areas could change given any risk upgrade from the SPC, and any new information from the next 2 model runs.  Please refer to the SPC home page link below the convective watches graphic for the DAY 1 outlook for tomorrow.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 10:00 A.M. CDT

F5 DATA NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT


F5 DATA NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT


F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT

Values of some chosen indices from F5 DATA software NAM-WRF model:
CRAVEN BROOKS: 30,000 – 70,000
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX: 2 – 5
CAPE: 2000 – 3000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -10
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 -8.0 C/km

The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



Source link

Similar Articles

Comments

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Advertismentspot_img

Instagram

Most Popular