Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
The SPC has issued an ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS…LOUISIANA…MISSISSIPPI…TENNESSEE…ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA…
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible Tuesday from the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateau regions. This will include a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
The entire SPC DAY 2 Severe Outlook will be linked to the very first SPC graphic, so you may view it in its entirety.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
Based on my analysis of the current SPC DAY 2 Outlook, and the indices mentioned, the atmosphere is forecast to become strongly de-stabilized. Based on the SPC outlook, little capping is expected across the ENHANCED risk area, along with a combination of steep mid level lapse rates, dewpoints ranging from 60F to 70F, and MLCAPE values of 2000 – 3000 j/kg. I’ll post some of the forecast values from the NAM-WRF recent run further in this synopsis. However, based on what I have seen, should the current forecast hold, I would not rule out the probability of SPC increasing the severe risk to MODERATE, over a portion of the ENHANCED risk area.
The following outlined maps indicate where the highest probability currently lies for the strongest of the severe weather, and tornado activity. As a reminder, these areas could change given any risk upgrade from the SPC, and any new information from the next 2 model runs. Please refer to the SPC home page link below the convective watches graphic for the DAY 1 outlook for tomorrow.
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 10:00 A.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 1:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 4:00 P.M. CDT
F5 DATA NAM-WRF 7:00 P.M. CDT
Values of some chosen indices from F5 DATA software NAM-WRF model:
CRAVEN BROOKS: 30,000 – 70,000
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX: 2 – 5
CAPE: 2000 – 3000 j/kg
LIFTED INDEX: -6 to -10
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0 -8.0 C/km
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS