Elsa is down there bottom right.
Already in the islands is 95L
There’s moisture over Florida.
I don’t want to play…
“stairway to heaven” here but it’s soupy.
Moist and where the high erodes is implortant.
How strong Elsa becomes is important.
Currently the NHC has it at 60 MPH often.
There’s 95L and Elsa dressed in white.
Now go back up and look at those images.
See the moisture trail on the left edge of the High.
This is the problem for Florida.
Not to say it can’t just go into the GOM.
NW Florida Big Bend is popular in July for storms.
The Cone below.
Now look back up at the satellite images above.
The moisture trail is there like cookie crumbs.
Models take different stabs at a solution.
But just looking at the moisture feed you see…
..what the models are picking up on.
My bottomline here is that it is very rare for a tropical storm in early July to race into the Caribbean at 29 MPH forward speed, though Elsa slowed down to 28 MPH by 9 PM. Elsa needs to slow down to at least 22 MPH to keep from unraveling and that happens usually when you see this fast forward movement but NOT ALWAYS. Sometimes the speed helps them in other ways and she is cruising towards warmer water.
This is still way early in the game early in July so let’s see how things are tomorrow evening. It has not even approached the islands yet so ignore the hype but take this hurricane seriously.
I just got back from Myrtle Beach and looping loops and watching a wild thunderstorm race through Raleigh moving in at 60 MPH forward speed so perhaps fast moving storms is all the rage these days?
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