Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text if needed.
The SPC has issued AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA…
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. This may include the development of one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, with the potential to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts. Large, damaging hail and a couple of tornadoes are also possible.
SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR CURRENT TEXT)
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page link for the DAY 1 outlook for Fri., APR. 09, 2021
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
Based on analysis of the current update to the SPC DAY 2 outlook, it may look a little confusing, and indicates a fairly complex atmospheric situation. You can click the DAY 2 convective outlook map to read the outlook in it’s entirety, however I prefer to simplify and shorten it here. In simple terms, although models are pretty much in agreement on consensus of the large scale pattern to occur, the differ on synoptic developments during the day. However, the outlook, and F5 data severe weather software using the NAM-WRF 18Z run, indicate moistening to occur throughout the day, steepening mid level (700-500 mb) lapse rates, strong vertical wind shear, moderate to high CAPE levels, strong lifted indices, moderate to high EHI (Energy Helicity Index) indices, moderate to strong STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) indices, sufficient SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) and high VGP(Vorticity Generation Parameter), support for severe storm development exists.
Based on my analysis of the NAM-WRF model this evening, the majority of indices were in the upper values. The following are the values of the indices and parameters analyzed:
SBCAPE: 2000-3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000-2500 j/kg
LI: -6 to -10
LAPSE RATE: 7.5-8.5 c/km
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
Given the values of these parameters, and others not listed, I am surprised to see only a 5% probability for tornadic activity over the enhanced area. Should these values actually come to fruition, I would not rule out the SPC increasing a portion of the enhanced risk area, to a MODERATE risk. Based on the NAM-WRF output this evening, the following maps currently indicate where the best probability lies (within or close to the outlined areas) for the strongest of the severe weather to occur, and the best probability for tornadic activity. Once again, be aware these may change as the model updates again in the morning, along with any changes the SPC may initiate in the next morning update to the convective outlook.
NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CDT
NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CDT
NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 10:00 P.M. CDT
NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 1:00 A.M. CDT 4/10/2021
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS