ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 08, 2021…7:20 P.M. EDT

ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED APR. 08, 2021…7:20 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather.  In all, I put out $68 a month to provide you, what I hope are accurate forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Once again, as credit to the SPC, I will be incorporating the SPC outlook text if needed.

The SPC has issued AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHEASTERN TEXAS…SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN LOUISIANA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. This may include the development of one or two organized thunderstorm clusters, with the potential to produce swaths of damaging wind gusts. Large, damaging hail and a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/Outlook-category-descriptions.png
SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR CURRENT TEXT)

TORNADO OUTLOOK

WIND OUTLOOK


HAIL OUTLOOK

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point
PLEASE, refer to the SPC home page link for the DAY 1 outlook for Fri., APR. 09, 2021
SPC HOME PAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Based on analysis of the current update to the SPC DAY 2 outlook, it may look a little confusing, and indicates a fairly complex atmospheric situation.  You can click the DAY 2 convective outlook map to read the outlook in it’s entirety, however I prefer to simplify and shorten it here.  In simple terms, although models are pretty much in agreement on consensus of the large scale pattern to occur, the differ on synoptic developments during the day.  However, the outlook, and F5 data severe weather software using the NAM-WRF 18Z run, indicate moistening to occur throughout the day, steepening mid level (700-500 mb) lapse rates, strong vertical wind shear, moderate to high CAPE levels, strong lifted indices, moderate to high EHI (Energy Helicity Index) indices, moderate to strong STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) indices, sufficient SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) and high VGP(Vorticity Generation Parameter), support for severe storm development exists.

Based on my analysis of the NAM-WRF model this evening, the majority of indices were in the upper values.  The following are the values of the indices and parameters analyzed:
SBCAPE: 2000-3000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 2000-2500 j/kg
LI: -6 to -10
EHI: 3-5
STP: 2-8
LAPSE RATE: 7.5-8.5 c/km
VGP: 0.3-0.7
The following 2 links will provide some explanation of what these indices mean:
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Given the values of these parameters, and others not listed, I am surprised to see only a 5% probability for tornadic activity over the enhanced area.  Should these values actually come to fruition, I would not rule out the SPC increasing a portion of the enhanced risk area, to a MODERATE risk.  Based on the NAM-WRF output this evening, the following maps currently indicate where the best probability lies (within or close to the outlined areas) for the strongest of the severe weather to occur, and the best probability for tornadic activity.  Once again, be aware these may change as the model updates again in the  morning, along with any changes the SPC may initiate in the next morning update to the convective outlook.
NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 4:00 P.M. CDT

NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 7:00 P.M. CDT

NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 10:00 P.M. CDT

NAM – WRF BEST TORNADO PROBABILITY 1:00 A.M. CDT 4/10/2021

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)


The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

Use the following link to see your area forecast.  Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/fallfrostinfo
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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