INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 16, 2021…9:00 P.M. EDT

INVEST 92L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 16, 2021…9:00 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 2
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

Based on updated information in climate models, my seasonal forecast may change, once I have time to perform a total analysis.

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

The NHC has increased the probability of cyclone development to HIGH (90%) during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 92L:
LOCATED:  18.7N;94.0W
MOVEMENT: QUASI STATIONARY
MAX. WINDS: 25 MPH
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 1009 MB / 29.80 IN

Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates INVEST 92L may be slowly trying to finally organize.  There has been an increase in convection today, and you can make out a large area of counter-clockwise motion in the lower clouds.  The “center” is still diffuse, in that there still appears to be a couple of vortices.  However, based on the recent 925 mb and 850 mb vorticity maps from CIMSS, and recent vorticity update from the larger analysis map, vorticity is greatest NE of where the INVEST location marker is at the moment.  As I stated yesterday evening, I believe the center will try to reform close to, or under the heavier convection near the W. Yucatan Peninsula.  In fact, the ECMWF and GFS MSLP Normalized anomaly forecast maps tend to indicate this is where development may begin.  Water vapor imagery (last satellite loop) is now indicating dry air beginning to move in from the west.
WEATHERNERDS 92L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



CIMSS 925 MB AND 850 MB VORTICITY MAPS


INVEST ANALYSIS MAP VORTICITY

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST MAPS ANIMATION


There is still basically no change in the forecast parameters.  The ECMWF still indicates favorable RH values through the mid levels, indicating drier air intruding at the 500 mb level later in the forecast, Fairly high precipitable water values, and a somewhat smaller area of lessened wind shear over the system.  Analysis of the current SHIPS diagnostic report however, indicates shear values during the next 96 hours becoming less favorable however.  This does not seem to match up with the ECMWF wind shear forecast indicating shear may be below the SHIPS diagnostic report.  The following shear map is from the ECMWF.  The black circle indicates where the center of the system will be located at that time.  I will be revisiting this discrepancy as development occurs.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR MAP

ECMWF MID LEVEL HUMIDITY FORECAST

PWAT VALUES

Outflow is still shown confined to the North and East of the system through the period.  Based on this, this could still support a weak tropical storm.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


The ECMWF EPS probability forecast still indicates a higher probability this evening for development of a tropical storm. 

ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY FORECAST
Regardless of development, both models are indicating heavy rainfall totals during the next 7 days:
ECMWF AND GFS 168 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST


WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

The following are forecast surface wind velocities and gusts in MPH:
ECMWF


GFS


Track guidance and intensity seem to be gradually coming together, however this is still low confidence until the system begins moving north and away from close proximity to land, when we should be able to analyze how this organizes.

Based on all of the analyzed conditions, should they be accurate, this feature may just become a depression, however may be favorable enough to allow for a minimal tropical storm to develop.  Based on analysis of the surface wind field, this appears it may be sub-tropical, as maximum winds are well away from the center of the system, and this should be an east weighted system, meaning convection, wind and rain will mainly occur north and east of the center.
RAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE

CURRENT TRACK GUIDANCE

Based on forecast rainfall totals, and possible tropical storm force winds, coastal and inland flooding seem to be a good possibility, along with some minor beach erosion mainly near and east of the center.

I will continue to monitor 92L for any significant changes to the forecast.

Elsewhere, the ECMWF EPS probability forecast indicates we may see another development off the U.S. east coast soon.
ECMWF EPS 144 – 195 HOUR FORECAST
Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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