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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.
Okay. What a Charlie Foxtrot this morning. Where do I start? Guess we’ll go with the last designated system, INVEST 92L.
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the tropical wave, INVEST 92L which exited Africa not too long ago, is lacking any convection over or close to the center of circulation, and is located near 30W. An area of convection has flared up over the past few hours where a tropical wave is located (area closest to the Lesser Antilles near 50W on the NHC map). A small area of low pressure is noted near 40W (middle area on the NHC map), and is more notable as a naked swirl in the visible satellite animation. I have arrows pointing to the feature at 40W and INVEST 92L in the still visible graphic
WEATHERNERDS IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS
I took a look at the ATCF site and the BTK (Best TracK) information, and guidance was discontinued on 92L after 00Z (8:00 p.m. EDT) last night. The last update indicate really no strengthening of 92L. Current upper level winds indicate a lack of outflow. 92L has been under some persistent easterly shear, albeit just on the threshold of unfavorable, with shear of 20 kts having been over the center. Based on the limited steering forecast maps analysis I had this morning (one site was down, and the other only provided me intermittent animation), 92L should continue on a west, and eventually WNW motion. Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and relative humidity forecast values (RH), upper level winds remain unfavorable, with 20 – 21 kts of easterly shear forecast by the last SHIPS diagnostic report, for the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to ingest dry air at 500 mb in approximately 72 hours.
INVEST 92L UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
The NHC has lowered the probability of cyclone development to LOW (30%) over the next 5
NHC 5 DAY GTWO MAP AND SEPARATE MAPS
Based on looking at everything, I concur at this moment, and neither the ECMWF or GFS develop 92L as of the morning runs. One uncanny thing is, the GFS picked up on all 3 areas, and resembles the NHC outlook map.
I will continue to monitor 92L in case conditions change. I know…things look confusing looking at the NHC outlook map, and especially satellite imagery. We have two notable things going on at the moment, as to WHY we are not seeing quicker development, or development at all. First, ALL 3 of these areas are located within the ITCZ, and being rather close in proximity of each other, they are competing for energy with each other. Generally, the more dominant circulation usually wins out. In order for anything to develop, the other two systems have to pretty much dissipate, and a dominant circulation has to develop, with favorable or somewhat favorable conditions over and around it. Second, the atmosphere has become less conducive, and a little less unstable. Graphics from CIMSS indicates some drier conditions. Although water vapor does not indicate strong drier air where the 3 features are, the grey colors surrounding their limited moisture field indciate conditions are drier than they were, let’s say, 24 – 36 hours ago. The airmass graphic will show some SAL (RED/BROWN COLOR), and the natural color image shows stable conditions by the presence once again, of Stratocumulus clouds surrounding the 3 areas of interest It appears a weak layer of SAL may be affecting the area. Also, based on the recent THDV (Vertical Instability) graph, although instability was climbing to the climatological point, it has fallen a bit, and still indicates vertical instability is not very strong.
CIMSS MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR
AIRMASS (LINKED FOR LARGER IMAGE TO VIEW COLOR SCALE)
NATURAL SATELLITE IMAGE
VERTICAL INSTABILITY (MDR)
Now, given the somewhat confusing details, given the yellow crayon went nuts, and especially satellite analysis, it makes it a little tougher to analyze features on the various maps I analyze, and hell, I MAY even blow this one today, until we can get something definite as one area. However, the GFS and ECMWF drop both INVEST 92L, and the wave closer to the Lesser Antilles. The wave near the Lesser Antilles appears to remain in very marginal, to unfavorable conditions for any further or significant development. They do both however, seem to take an interest in the low near 40W, with the GFS being more bullish on development.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION
GFS MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION
I cannot rule this out right now, based on the premise the forecast indicates a reduction in wind shear at the moment as this feature approaches the Lesser Antilles. The GFS, which has generally been the more accurate model in determining wind shear, indicates the upper level environment should become a little more conducive beginning in about 72 hours with a reduction in shear, and more favorable conditions by 120 hours in the forecast period. The shear map is circled, indicating the area in question. The zonal shear forecast indicates at the moment, that “zero” zonal shear may be present at that time as well. Analysis of the relative humidity forecast from both models, indicates favorable conditions up to the 500 mb, up to around the 120 hour time frame. Thereafter, conditions become marginal. Based on this analysis, the low near 40W could have a chance for some slow development, IF it can begin to fire off some convection soon, and continue to do so. Right now, I am not expecting any significant development, but the chance for some slow development does exist. Again, we know how quickly conditions change, and right now, it’s basically a wait and see, until we see which feature wins out in the ITCZ.
GFS SHEAR FORECAST 120 HOURS
GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST
GFS 200 MB FORECAST (INDICATING LIMITED UPPER DIVERGENCE)
ECMWF CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
I know it seemed like the season was getting ready to take off, however we are not quite there yet. Even though the MJO forecast has been indicating a favorable pattern, it appears to be in its “null” position at the moment in phase 1, shown by the red arrow in the JMA graphic. However, the forecast calls for the MJO to come out into phase 1 and into phase 2, with a fairly impressive signal. The ECMWF indicates the MJO to progress eastward over time, with the JMA indicating a stall in phase 2, with its ensemble members pretty well clustered around the “mean”. IF this does occur, especially the JMA forecast, we should see the expected increase in activity, and have a busy Aug., again beginning by the second 10 days of Aug., through the end of the month.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
JMA MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS