INVEST 93L / HISPANIOLA TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 11, 2021…ISSUED 7:25 P.M. EDT

INVEST 93L / HISPANIOLA TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 11, 2021…ISSUED 7:25 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:  20
TOTAL HURRICANES:          7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS:    8

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

The following is the supplemental list for the 2021 hurricane season:
Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, and Will.

As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note…when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Good evening everyone,
The following are satellite animations of the Atlantic basin and Africa
ATLANTIC
Jacobus
AFRICA
Lucio
The NHC still has an interest in (93L), and has kept a LOW (10%) probability of development:

METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
The wave is moving toward the WNW, and based on steering and guidance analysis, I expect this motion to continue during the next 36 – 48 hours, with more of a NW motion as the wave passes over the northern Leeward Islands.
18Z ATCF GUIDANCE
https://i2.wp.com/hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2021/al932021/track_early/aal93_2021101118_track_early.png

93L is currently under some 25 – 30 kts of wind shear, and forecast conditions should remain unfavorable for any organization or regeneration as shear is forecast to remain in place during the next few days.  The “center” of this feature should move north of Barbados.  Based on analysis of the ECMWF global model, Barbados could experience winds of 20 mph with higher gusts, and periods of heavy rain.  Islands north of Barbados may experience higher wind speeds and higher gusts, with higher rainfall totals.  The following is the recent satellite animation of 93L
93L IR AND SWIR ANIMATION
Viviana
Emery
The following is forecast surface winds from the ECMWF global model, and 72 hour total precipitation:
ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST
Heath
TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST 72 HOURS
Jacobus
BARBADOS RADAR (CLICK TO ANIMATE)
Lucio
Elsewhere, the NHC has taken interest in a poorly defined tropical wave, just south and along the coast of Hispaniola.  This is the following from the NHC outlook:
Environmental conditions are not expected to support development of this system for the next day or two. However, some gradual development is possible beginning on Wednesday when the system nears the southeastern Bahamas.

The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability of development during the next 5 days.
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
Based on my analysis of the current wind shear forecast, you’ll note wind shear is still in place by Wednesday.  Based on this alone, I do not see this wave becoming organized or start to organize by then.  I will continue to monitor this area however, in case conditions change over the next 48 – 72 hours
TROPICAL WAVE SATELLITE ANIMATION
recent satellite animation
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Viviana
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
Emery
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
Heath
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)Jacobus

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

Lucio

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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