My blue view of the world today.
Dangerous weather in the South today.
And I’m watching an Upper Level Low in the GOM.
That gray circle with orange in it.
That’s an upper level low.
I find them interesting.
In a week from now something else could be there.
Climo rules on almost any given day.
This is where we look in June. Usually.
If something gets up here….
… it’s serious.
If the mess of convection in the EPAC/Carib gets up here.
Then we could have a real problem.
Till then we are just watching and waiting.
While you watch and wait … prepare !
I’ve spent a lot of time with forecasters online and in person doing various things of a tropical nature. Usually researching hurricane history, patterns and being taught the secrets of the water vapor loop. I’ve been to numerous conventions, conferences and spent hours at the library at the NHC and AOML reading, researching and learning secrets that reveal the patterns in play that make one hurricane season different from another. Almost always in any year you can bet on Climo and that is where things happen in June. Yes, Bertha formed in July way out in the Atlantic and that can happen even in early July but it’s rare and then you deal with it. But June really is too soon and yet it is never too soon to prepare for hurricane seasons.
Weather is on fire today in the Deep South.
Eventually you will see a hurricane there …not today.
There are no circles in the Atlantic today, as I expected, and the EPAC is busy with two areas being monitored including the one hugging the coastline that we have been discussing. Really everything is discussion until we actually see a center and weather spinning around it. June is the time to shoot the breeze, talk incessantly over possibilities and to get your affairs in order and know whether you need to evacuate or it is safe to stay where you life and if so what will you need to get you through the drama and trauma of life after a hurricane has made landfall.
If the hurricane changes course and you get some rain and a bit of wind you will join the armies of people complaining they spent so much money and time preparing and the hurricane didn’t even make landfall. IF you are one of the people who lived through the month after a Major Hurricane that did make landfall by you and you know what that is like you know the value of preparation and having a plan. Yes, I said “month” because after a Major Hurricane life does not go back to normal in a few weeks and sometimes it’s months after a hurricane. People pack up, sell what’s left of their home and move away and often people get divorced or go through depression and I’m not talking the tropical kind but the kind brought on by too much tropical weather. So if the hurricane misses you ….. make a party with those unused hurricane supplies and offer prayers of thanks!
Everything in life is a matter of perspective and varied opinions. I’ll be honest with you and tell you that there is no real way to “prepare” for a Category 5 Hurricane as it can tear apart your house and blow your hurricane supplies into what was the beautifully landscaped backyard that belongs to your neighbor. I’ve had the neighbor’s shed blow into my yard in a strong Category 2 so know that can happen but the point is that you are preparing for a nearby miss or a close brush or a strong Category 1 or 2 or low end 3. And, even a low end 3 is strong enough to turn your world around forever. You will either become obsessive about Hurricane Season every year moving forward or you will move away out of hurricane country and decide you’d rather have to shovel snow or deal with the chance of an Earthquake.
What’s going on today? There’s a kick ass Upper Level Low in the Gulf of Mexico. There’s severe weather in the South that’s going to rock someone’s house and more flooding is on the way for many people. There have been no F5 Tornadoes this month and no landfalling hurricane so be happy, give thanks, tell those you love that you love them and enjoy the music and the roses or whatever rocks your world!
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Song for the day… tomorrow we will talk on why I’m obsessed with Upper Level Lows but everyone knows what weather I am most obsessed with and that’s tropical meteorology tho I do love a good snow storm. An Upper Level Low can tear apart a developing tropical system and yet sometimes they show us patterns and problems. I love weather… you must love weather is you’re still reading this… right?