There is no development expected for a bit.
The tropical waters have to heat up.
I really love this site http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/BHI.jpg
It’s kind of basic you need hot water to boil at egg…
…. or get convection going.
The site above is out of the Tampa area but it’s dedicated to the tropics and there is a plethora of links, views and information for anyone, anywhere in hurricane country. Note it’s red in the EPAC shown below and there are currently two areas being monitored for development there. The water is warm there now and the MJO is also there and the MJO will be moving into our basin soon. As always this time of year we look down towards the Yucatan and that general area to see if something might begin to develop and move North with the flow.
This is how the tropics work….
….there’s a pattern and process as old as time.
Models insinuate that in the long term (7 to 10 days) something begins to develop. But I don’t need a model to show me a system and then take it away on the next run and then it reappears once again to tell me the tropics are coming together to produce a wild hurricane season.
It’s a simple recipe.
Tropics are pretty simple too.
You can’t make borscht without beets and you can’t boil an egg without hot water. It’s that simple. Until that happens you have convection and you can watch the flow for signs where something would go down the road.
As for the flow….
..where would anything go???
Blue is cool, cold, not happening.
Orange and read is moist warm air.
Turn on the water temperatures.
Lower the shear…
You get something spinning up.
Later this week you’ll see slow changes and around the end of the week we may have something to monitor in our basin as well. Until then… water your garden, take care of your priorities and stock up on supplies you will need to get you through the hurricane season. Remember, you aren’t buying food for the hurricane as if it’s some visitor coming to dinner, you are buying buying food and supplies for being without power, without cable and without good drinking water.
Everyone says to prepare for the hurricane season, yet they don’t really explain this well.
A hurricane comes your way you have two choices depending on your location and nature so you will either stay or go. If you are going to go you need to have a plan and you need supplies to take on the road such as water, snacks, first aid, toys for kids if you got em and medication for emergencies. If you are going to stay you need water, food, medication and something to keep the kids busy with for the next week to two weeks and possibly three weeks while you try to cut down the broken trees, fix the holes in your home and wait for power trucks to come back into your neighborhood. You have choice… candles (everyone says not to buy them but people do) or batteries for a radio and flashlight and if you have the money honey get a generator. And when you see that line of trucks coming to your town with lineman ready to put the wires back up again you say a prayer of thanks. It’s that simple, it’s ground truth!
I’m going to enjoy the day today here as I’ve been out of town for a close to two weeks and as much as I love Miami and Florida slowly over time I’ve become a Carolina girl and I have things I want to do and places I want to see. Kind of back in the saddle now, reading up on some hurricane history and watching the loops for the hints to what will be and occasionally watching models.
Jim Williams, a very good and long time friend, said recently as much as you can talk on forecasting it’s important to talk about knowing where they will make landfall because when it comes down to Hurricane Season it’s all about location. When Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico everyone in Miami held their breath and said a prayer Irma did not ground it’s way down Flagler Street delivering a trail of destruction the way Andrew did to Homestead. Those living in Big Pine Key were heartbroken when Irma tore their beautiful world apart and those in Miami bitched they lost some trees and a few roof shingles or in Coral Gables some tiles from their barrel tile roofs.
In the 1980s Miami kids watch all the hurricanes slide away somewhere else. The real hurricanes not the weak Floyd that you could easily drive through but real hurricanes went somewhere else. In the 1960s Miami got hit multiple times, in the 70s things got weird and in the 90s hurricanes were back in style.
Where hurricanes go makes all the difference. And, if they decide to come to you … you better darn well be prepared or have a plan to get out of town. It’s that simple. Ground Truth.
…have a good weekend!
Use your time wisely!!
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps in order to skate you need skates… it’s that simple. Enjoy the video… I have a granddaughter that looks like her… she’s gonna be a heart breaker some day. Hurricanes can break your heart too if they show up you are unprepared and end up lying in a bathtub with a mattress over you the way my daughter-in-law did in Hurricane Andrew when she was five. I gotta tell you … if it’s a major she gets out of town real fast! You live you learn… my grandson who is very young still remembers when he drove to North Carolina with his father when Irma threatened Miami… his mother was on a plane with her baby daughter before he drove out.
What’s your plan… you need a bowling ball to bowl, you need skates to skate… you need supplies for after the storm moves on.