This was written by a meteorologist? – Watts Up With That?

This was written by a meteorologist? – Watts Up With That?


Guest “I’ve lost track of how many things this guy got wrong” by David Middelton

WEATHER

Humans are causing climate change: It’s just been proven directly for the first time

by: David Yeomans

Posted: Apr 5, 2021 / 04:00 PM CDT / Updated: Apr 6, 2021 / 07:04 AM CDT

AUSTIN (KXAN) — While it’s now common knowledge that man-made greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat at the Earth’s surface and cause global temperatures to rise, it’s never been proven 100% by conclusive, direct, and observational data.

But that’s now changed.

In a first-of-its-kind study, academic researchers along with NASA scientists are quantifying the direct impact that human activity is having on our climate system — and proving human activity is to blame for recent warming trends.

Before the Industrial Revolution, the Earth’s climate was, for a large amount of time, in a relatively stable, harmonious stasis where heat energy coming in to the atmosphere was equivalent to energy going out. Note that the sun brings incoming heat energy, and the Earth itself gives off outgoing energy to maintain balance.

There is a natural greenhouse effect caused by the aerosols and clouds in our atmosphere…

[…]

KXAN

“Before the Industrial Revolution, the Earth’s climate was, for a large amount of time, in a relatively stable, harmonious stasis…”

Horst schist! Ever hear of the Little Ice Age?

Figure 1. CPS with historical climate periods and Neoglaciation (Grosjean et al., 2007)

Or maybe the 1970’s?

Without the roughly 0.8 °C of warming since 1975, that allegedly can’t be explained by natural factors alone, we’d still be waiting for The Ice Age Cometh!

Figure 2. Modeled human climate forcing compared to three instrumental records (see Terando for specifics)

Even if humans are the primary cause of the warming since 1975, the fracking climate was doing this before we mucked up the “stable, harmonious stasis”!

Figure 3. HadCRUT4 Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly (°C) 1952-1976, Wood for Trees.

How about the Pleistocene? Ever hear of that?

Figure 4.  Late Quaternary temperature reconstruction for Central Greenland from the GISP1 ice core (after Alley, 2000).
Figure 5. CPS with historical climate periods and Neoglaciation (Grosjean et al., 2007), Early Holocene ice extent map (Dyke et al., 2003) and Alps tree line altitude (Bohleber et al., 2021).

“There is a natural greenhouse effect caused by the aerosols and clouds in our atmosphere…”

Water vapor is a “greenhouse gas”… Clouds aren’t water vapor.

Clouds are not water vapor. Water vapor is the gas state of H2O and is invisible.

West Texas A&M University

Aerosols do not cause the “greenhouse effect.”

Aerosols: Tiny Particles, Big Impact
Take a deep breath. Even if the air looks clear, it’s nearly certain that you’ll inhale tens of millions of solid particles and liquid droplets. These ubiquitous specks of matter are known as aerosols, and they can be found in the air over oceans, deserts, mountains, forests, ice, and every ecosystem in between. They drift in Earth’s atmosphere from the stratosphere to the surface and range in size from a few nanometers—less than the width of the smallest viruses—to several several tens of micrometers—about the diameter of human hair. Despite their small size, they have major impacts on our climate and our health.

[…]

The bulk of aerosols—about 90 percent by mass—have natural origins. Volcanoes, for example, eject huge columns of ash into the air, as well as sulfur dioxide and other gases, yielding sulfates.

[…]

Aerosols and Incoming Sunlight (Direct Effects)
The Sun provides the energy that drives Earth’s climate, but not all of the energy that reaches the top of the atmosphere finds its way to the surface. That’s because aerosols—and clouds seeded by them—reflect about a quarter of the Sun’s energy back to space.

[…]

NASA

The first-of-its-kind study mentioned aerosols…. Didn’t you read it?

Abstract
Changes in atmospheric composition, such as increasing greenhouse gases, cause an initial radiative imbalance to the climate system, quantified as the instantaneous radiative forcing. This fundamental metric has not been directly observed globally and previous estimates have come from models. In part, this is because current space‐based instruments cannot distinguish the instantaneous radiative forcing from the climate’s radiative response. We apply radiative kernels to satellite observations to disentangle these components and find all‐sky instantaneous radiative forcing has increased 0.53±0.11 W/m2 from 2003 through 2018, accounting for positive trends in the total planetary radiative imbalance. This increase has been due to a combination of rising concentrations of well‐mixed greenhouse gases and recent reductions in aerosol emissions. These results highlight distinct fingerprints of anthropogenic activity in Earth’s changing energy budget, which we find observations can detect within 4 years.

Kramer et al., 2021

Willis discussed the paper in this WUWT post… Losing Ones Balance. It’s interesting. It might even have some merit… But this graph from Mr. Yeomans’ article doesn’t have any climatological merit, even if it is correct…

Figure 6. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature trends since 1880 (Climate Central)
Figure 7. “A funny thing happened on the way to the Anthropocene.”

If the only difference between the Little Ice Age, the coldest climatic episode of the Holocene Epoch, is about 130 ppm CO2… Then CO2 isn’t such a bad thing.

References

Alley, R.B. 2000.  “The Younger Dryas cold interval as viewed from central Greenland.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19:213-226.

Bohleber, P., Schwikowski, M., Stocker-Waldhuber, M. et al. New glacier evidence for ice-free summits during the life of the Tyrolean Iceman. Sci Rep 10, 20513 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77518-9

Dyke, A.S., Moore, A. and L. Robertson. [computer file]. Deglaciation of North America. Geological Survey of Canada Open File 1547. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada, 2003.

Grosjean, Martin, Suter, Peter, Trachsel, Mathias & Wanner, Heinz. (2007). “Ice‐borne prehistoric finds in the Swiss Alps reflect Holocene glacier fluctuations”. Journal of Quaternary Science. 22. 203 – 207. 10.1002/jqs.1111.

Kaufman, D., McKay, N., Routson, C. et al. Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach. Sci Data 7, 201 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0530-7

MacFarling Meure, C., D. Etheridge, C. Trudinger, P. Steele, R. Langenfelds, T. van Ommen, A. Smith, and J. Elkins. 2006. “The Law Dome CO2, CH4 and N2O Ice Core Records Extended to 2000 years BP”. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 14, L14810 10.1029/2006GL026152. LINK Data

Monnin, E., et al.. 2004. EPICA Dome C Ice Core High Resolution Holocene and Transition CO2 Data.
IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Data Contribution Series # 2004-055.
NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Terando, A., Reidmiller, D., Hostetler, S.W., Littell, J.S., Beard, T.D., Jr., Weiskopf, S.R., Belnap, J., and Plumlee, G.S., 2020, Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking—The role of the U.S. Geological Survey: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1058, 25 p.,
https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201058.



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