TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 10, 2021…8:55 A.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 10, 2021…8:55 A.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

The tropics have returned to a quiet state.  Satellite imagery indicates a lack of any real activity in the Atlantic basin:
WEATHERNERDS ATLANTIC ANIMATION
75412992
The water vapor animation shows the majority of the Atlantic covered in dry air, partly due to a plume of African dust crossing the basin:
WEATHERNERDS WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
75310268
CURRENT SAL FROM NASA GEOS FORECAST
nasa-geos-all-exatl-dust-5922000
Typically, dust outbreaks are most common and heaviest during the month of July, and sometimes into the first week or two of August.

Analysis of the current realtime wind shear graph indicates although wind shear over the MDR is below climatology (black line represents climatology), Vertical instability still remains well below climatology.  You will note in the satellite image, Stratocumulus clouds cover a good portion of the Atlantic.  This indicates a very stable environment at the moment, hence the lack of “vertical” clouds.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_THDV
CIMSS NATURAL COLOR SATELLITE VIEW
g16nc-6
Based on analysis of the global models this morning, tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 7 – 10 days.  This is due to the lack of a favorable MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) phase.  The most “favorable” phases for our basins (GOMEX, Caribbean and Atlantic) are 8, 1, and 2.  This is what brought about the activity we just saw the end of June, until now.  Based on my analysis of MJO phase space diagrams, and CHI200 anomaly forecast maps, we should remain in a fairly quiet period for the remainder of the month.  The majority of the phase space diagram forecasts indicate the MJO may roll into phase 4 and 5 by the middle part of the month, which can cause a small favorable area over the NW GOMEX, however right now, I do not anticipate any development.  The current CHI200 forecast maps indicate (sinking air), or downward vertical velocity to remain in place, until at least the end of the month.  Thereafter, the JMA model (which has nailed this over the past 2 seasons), and for the most part, the ECMWF EPS Control, indicate more favorable conditions over the African continent, westward toward the middle of the Atlantic and MDR region.  OH BOY!, just in time for the Cape Verde season.  The red/orange, and tan/brown areas in the following maps indicate convergence at the 200 mb level, which indicates sinking air, which in turn, dries the atmosphere out, hence no moisture or rising motion to produce clouds…what we call a “suppressive phase” of the MJO.
ECMWF AND GFS CHI200 FORECAST ANIMATIONS
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-1625875200-1625875200-1626739200-40
gfs-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-1625896800-1625896800-1626760800-40
ECMWF EPS CHI200 FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071000_CONTROL_120
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071000_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071000_CONTROL_360
JMA CHI200 FORECAST
jma.1
jma.2
jma.3
The following links are articles on the MJO, explaining pretty much what it is, and how it affects tropical weather.
MJO EXPLAINED
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml

Based on this analysis, I do not anticipate development anytime soon.  The JMA model will update on Thursday, regarding the CHI200 anomalies.  I ‘ll be looking to see if any changes occur, and will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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