TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 02, 2021…8:30 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 02, 2021…8:30 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Current satellite loop imagery shows a fairly quiet Atlantic.  The feature south of the Cape Verde islands is a Tropical Wave in the ITCZ.  The feature over Cuba and Florida is associated with a mid – upper level  trof.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
53138807

Based on my analysis of global models this evening, tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.  The models did not indicate any type of closed surface circulation.  The GFS had been hinting at a storm coming up from the Caribbean a few days ago, and heading toward the Gulf Coast, then showed nothing the next run.  The next evening, it brought a system across Cuba, and into the FL. East coast.  As I stated in my last tropical update, I would usually disregard this with the GFS, however it has been fair in consistency of lowering surface pressure anomalies.  It could be onto something, however I still would like to see more models show something solid as far as a surface circulation.

Now, based on analysis, we could be getting closer to seeing a possible development either in the Caribbean, or somewhere within the southern GOMEX, as I point out a few of the “favorable signals” I analyzed this evening.  Ensemble, and even the standard global models have been consistent for about 4 days now, indicating a 500 mb pattern around the 10th – 15th that favors lowering of pressures or beginning of development either in the GOMEX or Caribbean, depending on the actual location of the forecast ridge over extreme northern U.S., or near the Newfoundland area of Canada.  The modeling indicates the rising of pressure heights, or strengthening of the 500 mb ridge.  We refer to this (coined by Joe Bastardi) as the “ridge over troubled water”).  What happens is, as pressure heights rise over the north like that, they naturally lower or fall well to the south, as airflow moves from higher pressure into lower pressure.  I will be using mainly the ECMWF and GFS graphics.  The CMC hasn’t caught on yet.
ECMWF ENS MEAN DAY 5 – 10
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-z500_anom_5day-3499200
ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTROL
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-exatl-z500_anom_5day-3499200
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-exatl-z500_anom_5day-3499200
GFS DETERMINISTIC
gfs-deterministic-exatl-z500_anom_5day-3499200
It appears models are in fair agreement of lowering MSLP normalized anomalies within the forecast period over the Caribbean:
ECMWF ENS MEAN MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIESecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-3499200
    ECMWF ENS CONTROL MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-3499200
GFS DETERMINISTIC
gfs-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-3499200
Another favorable indicator, albeit the actual signal seems weak, ensemble members indicated by the yellow lines, and the grey areas indicating a majority, tend to swing the MJO into either phase 1 or phase 2.  Phase 2 is generally indicative of development in the GOMEX or W. Caribbean):
JMAN_phase_51m_small
ECMF_phase_51m_full
diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member
The ECMWF EPS MEAN CHI200 anomaly forecast maps indicate a strong signal of upward vertical velocities or upward motion at 200 mb within the period, noted by greens and blues in the maps.  This is another favorable indicator that development may occur.
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALY MAPSeps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021060212_MEAN_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021060212_MEAN_360
Both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic models indicate favorable 200 mb vertical velocity potential:
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-3499200
GFS
gfs-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-3499200
The forecast moisture field based on RH values from the surface up to 500 mb looks favorable, but maybe slightly drier at 500 mb in the forecast period.  High precipitable water values were noted within the period as well.

One of the parameters that did not seem very favorable was the 200 mb map.  Some moderate shear was noted, as well as a lack of upper level outflow in the 200 mb streamline analysis.

The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability forecast is now beginning to indciate a low probability of tropical cyclone development.

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY MAP AND ANIMATED GIF
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_288

ecmwf-tcprobs-all-caribbean-prob_td_ecmwf-1622635200-1622894400-1623499200-40

Again, this does not necessarily mean development is imminent.  The probability however has increased, albeit everything in the forecast is 240 hours (10 days) out (in which accuracy can be diminished).  Right now, based on the forecast motion of the MJO, and what the models are showing, I would begin to look toward the Caribbean/GOMEX around June 10 – 15.

I will continue to monitor the Caribbean and GOMEX during the next 7 – 10 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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