TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 08, 2021…8:00 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 08, 2021…8:00 P.M. EDT


Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

The NHC indicates a 20% (LOW) probability of cyclone development during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (GTWO) LINKED
two_atl_5d1

Satellite loop imagery still indicates a fairly quiet Atlantic basin, so I wanted to focus on the area which is marked as Area To Watch:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
10919013
Upon further analysis of wind flow, and current vorticity maps, this appears to be confined to the mid levels at the moment.  It COULD be the precursor to probable development, however based on my analysis of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast map,, and information contained in the current NHC outlook, this is forecast to cross into central America.  Based on the EPS probability forecast, development beginning in the BOC seems more likely, and appears to be a combination of this area, possible energy from a disturbance currently in the EPAC, being aided by the central American gyre in about 5 – 6 days.  The loop of the ECMWF EPS probability forecast tends to indicate this scenario.  The EPS currently shows a 60% – 70% probability of a tropical depression in the 6 – 8 day period in the forecast.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_192
EPS LOOP
ecmwf-tcprobs-all-conuswide-prob_td_ecmwf-1623153600-1623412800-1624017600-40
GFS 925 MB AND 850 MB FORECAST (ARROWS INDICATE THE CAG)
gfs.t12z.925mb_wind.f120.camerica
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
Global models are pretty much in agreement of development, however timing and strength differ at this time.  As a precaution, one should not focus on intensity, or especially forecast motion, until we see if a closed low actually develops, giving the models something to “latch onto”.  Models become more accurate once a closed low and warm core develop.
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-conuswide-mslp_norm_anom-1623153600-1623672000-1624017600-40
GFS
gfs-deterministic-conuswide-mslp_norm_anom-1623153600-1623931200-1624190400-40
CMC
gem-all-conuswide-mslp_norm_anom-1623153600-1623844800-1624017600-40
Right now, based on the analyzed MSLP in the maps, should development occur, we could be looking at a minimal to mid grade tropical storm.  But, this remains to be seen.

Analysis of the ECMWF deterministic model indicate some fairly favorable conditions in the forecast, however one slight limiting factor is, the 200 mb level streamline patter indicates only a partial radial outflow to the east of the forecast center.  Again, this could change between now and the 6 – 10 day period.  All other parameters look favorable for development with ample moisture forecast through the mid level of the atmosphere, high precipitable water values, and favorable CHI200 anomalies, indicating very good divergence int he upper atmosphere.  The shear pattern which will be low in one sector, follows the pattern of the 200 mb streamline forecast.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST (RED ARROWS INDICATE OUTFLOW)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-4017600
ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST (FOUR PANEL DISPLAY)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh_fourpanel-3931200
ECMWF PWAT FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-pwat-3931200
Based on the current information, and the increase of probabilities from last night, and consistency in the modeling, the possibility of a tropical depression forming during the next 7 days has increased. While there is no imminent threat, residents along the Texas Gulf coast may wish to monitor the situation over the next 5 – 7 days, just to keep abreast.

I will continue to monitor the GOMEX during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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