TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 10, 2021…8:05 EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 10, 2021…8:05 EDT


Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Satellite imagery shows the disturbance in the EPAC close to Mexico, and some increased action in the ITCZ over Africa and the eastern Atlantic.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
46722728

The NHC has dropped the area that was located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the past couple of days.  I kind of figured this, as the motion put it over land.  This didn’t appear to be the area based on my re-analysis of the ECMWF EPS Cyclone probability forecast.  Analysis of this model yesterday and this evening, now tends to indicate the disturbance in the EPAC, could very well drift northward, and enter into the BOC (Bay Of Campeche) during the next 72-96 hours, and could be the catalyst for some type of development.  It is in the current NHC outlook that this area will drift generally northward.  Based on analysis of just the ECMWF and GFS, development still seems possible, however much weaker than indicated over the past few days.
two_pac_5d0
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST LOOP
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1623326400-1623628800-1624060800-40
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST LOOP
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1623348000-1623888000-1624179600-40
The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability forecast indicates higher probabilities within the next 72-96 hours for a depression, and begins to decrease thereafter.
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_96
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_120
ECMWF EPS LOOP
ecmwf-tcprobs-all-conuswide-prob_td_ecmwf-1623326400-1623585600-1624190400-40
I performed an analysis of the 500 mb pattern for the 5-10 day period, and the pattern is now showing a reversal, with a trof now forecast over the area where the ridge was forecast over the past 7 days.  This may not be as favorable for development, however analysis of the ECMWF global model does still indicate SOME favorable conditions, although not as optimal as the past 48 hours.  Upon supposed initiation, wind shear is forecast to be lower, and as whatever this may be, moves closer to land, shear increases.  The 200 mb streamline pattern indicates limited outflow to the east, and as this gets closer to land, outflow increases somewhat, but is still limited to the east.  The CHI200 anomalies still show strong divergence aloft.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-3888000
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-4082400
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-3866400

The RH forecast tends to indicate plenty of moisture up through 700 mb, but now shows some drier air at 500 mb.  Precipitable Water values still appear high, however not as high as 48 hours ago, and being drier to the west.
ECMWF RH VALUES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh_fourpanel-3834000
ECMWF PWAT FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-pwat-1623326400-1623974400-1624147200-40

Based on this updated information with a “mix” of forecast parameters, should development occur, I believe it may be slower to occur than shown over the past few days, with a weaker development.  I am going to continue to monitor the BOC over the next 4 – 5 days, and intend to have another update sometime this weekend.

Though development may be a little less favorable at the moment, updated information from the ECMWF mean, and JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast (which updated today), still indicates a favorable MJO signal during the next 2 week period, with strong vertical velocities shown at the 200 mb level, indicating moderate to strong divergence aloft, which favors tropical development.
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021061012_MEAN_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021061012_MEAN_360
JMA WEEK 1 FORECAST
jma.1
JMA WEEK 2 FORECAST
jma.2
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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