Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Satellite imagery shows the disturbance in the EPAC close to Mexico, and some increased action in the ITCZ over Africa and the eastern Atlantic.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
The NHC has dropped the area that was located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the past couple of days. I kind of figured this, as the motion put it over land. This didn’t appear to be the area based on my re-analysis of the ECMWF EPS Cyclone probability forecast. Analysis of this model yesterday and this evening, now tends to indicate the disturbance in the EPAC, could very well drift northward, and enter into the BOC (Bay Of Campeche) during the next 72-96 hours, and could be the catalyst for some type of development. It is in the current NHC outlook that this area will drift generally northward. Based on analysis of just the ECMWF and GFS, development still seems possible, however much weaker than indicated over the past few days.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST LOOP
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST LOOP
The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability forecast indicates higher probabilities within the next 72-96 hours for a depression, and begins to decrease thereafter.
ECMWF EPS LOOP
I performed an analysis of the 500 mb pattern for the 5-10 day period, and the pattern is now showing a reversal, with a trof now forecast over the area where the ridge was forecast over the past 7 days. This may not be as favorable for development, however analysis of the ECMWF global model does still indicate SOME favorable conditions, although not as optimal as the past 48 hours. Upon supposed initiation, wind shear is forecast to be lower, and as whatever this may be, moves closer to land, shear increases. The 200 mb streamline pattern indicates limited outflow to the east, and as this gets closer to land, outflow increases somewhat, but is still limited to the east. The CHI200 anomalies still show strong divergence aloft.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
The RH forecast tends to indicate plenty of moisture up through 700 mb, but now shows some drier air at 500 mb. Precipitable Water values still appear high, however not as high as 48 hours ago, and being drier to the west.
ECMWF RH VALUES FORECAST
ECMWF PWAT FORECAST
Based on this updated information with a “mix” of forecast parameters, should development occur, I believe it may be slower to occur than shown over the past few days, with a weaker development. I am going to continue to monitor the BOC over the next 4 – 5 days, and intend to have another update sometime this weekend.
Though development may be a little less favorable at the moment, updated information from the ECMWF mean, and JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast (which updated today), still indicates a favorable MJO signal during the next 2 week period, with strong vertical velocities shown at the 200 mb level, indicating moderate to strong divergence aloft, which favors tropical development.
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
JMA WEEK 1 FORECAST
JMA WEEK 2 FORECAST
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS