Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Okay folks, analysis today of global models does not indciate any tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.
Based on the TAFB 12Z surface analysis, two tropical waves were noted, and the axes are marked in yellow in the GOES 16 satellite image.
GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGE AND LOOP FROM WEATHERNERDS
Before getting into the actual forecast, I wanted to post current SST’s, SST anomalies, and OHC (Ocean Heat Content)
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
Ocean heat content basically, in part has to do with the depth of the 26.0C isotherm. Values of 50+ will support major hurricane activity and rapid intensification, provided ALL other conditions are favorable.
Based on analysis of certain forecast factors, we COULD (COULD, not WILL) see an increased possibility of some type of development. While some of the phase space diagrams forecasts for the MJO indicate the MJO heading toward phase 2 by most of the ensemble members in some of the modeling, the signal shows up weak, mainly in the control. Some ensemble members do indicate a little stronger signal. The GFS filtered VP200 (Velocity Potential) forecast indicates a favorable MJO pattern during the next 2 weeks, and the ECMWF Control and EPS Mean output indicates a fairly strong signal, and the JMA showing favorable conditions as well. This means upward vertical motion in the upper atmosphere at around 200 mb, which is conducive for tropical development:
GFS MJO FORECAST
ECMWF EPS MEAN AND CONTROL 200MB CHI ANOMALY FORECAST(GREEN INDICATES CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT)
JMA CHI200 FORECAST
What this is all leading up to is, IF the MJO comes into phase 2 with a decent signal, it usually indicates some type of development in or near the Gulf of Mexico. The following diagram displays the different phases of the MJO, and the red and orange areas indicate where development generally occurs:
Now, analysis of the global models doesn’t indicate development over the next 7 days or so. However, the GFS in the long range (to where I do not like going) develops a tropical system down in the Caribbean, and brings it up into the GOMEX as a tropical storm. The ECMWF EPS does not indicate any probability during the next 10 – 12 DAYS.
GFS LONG RANGE ANIMATION
ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY
Now, the only problem I have with the GFS is, models tend to lose accuracy beyond 7 days (to which I prefer not to go out beyond 5 – 7 days), and the GFS is the ONLY global model indicating favorable conditions such as no appreciable shear, and a favorable 200 mb streamline pattern (upper outflow). Now, normally I would “poo poo” this, and even though it is in the long range, I cannot totally rule this out. Here’s why…the ENSEMBLE models and for the most part the global models (control) have been indicating a 500 mb pattern that favors development somewhere in the GOMEX. The following maps indicate rising pressure heights around the extreme NE U. S. / Newfoundland, or a ridge of high pressure. This is what we meteorologist affectionately term the “ridge over troubled water”, given the fact that when a ridge builds to the north like this, pressures naturally tend to “fall” or lower south of the ridging. The flow goes from higher pressure to lower pressure. This ridge is also known as the “Newfoundland wheel”. This feature is what contributed to the main steering flow for hurricane Hazel back in 1954. So, based on the forecast 500 mb setup, which has been consistent over the past few days, we generally get a setup for development as shown by the GFS animation.
ECMWF ENS (MEAN)
ECMWF ENS (CONTROL)
GFS OPERATIONAL 500 MB ANOMALY
Again, this is 10 – 12 days out in the forecast period, and as I stated, it is possible, however I want to see other models pick up on a “surface” feature. So, this is pretty much a heads up to me, to continue to monitor the GOMEX and pattern over the next few days, and look for more models to jump on board and look for run to run consistency.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS