TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2021…6:25 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2021…6:25 P.M. EDT


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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Okay folks, analysis today of global models does not indciate any tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.

Based on the TAFB 12Z surface analysis, two tropical waves were noted, and the axes are marked in yellow in the GOES 16 satellite image.
GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGE AND LOOP FROM WEATHERNERDS
GOES16_1km_ir_202105301905_0.00_50.00_-103.00_5.00_ir1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds
97603633
Before getting into the actual forecast, I wanted to post current SST’s, SST anomalies, and OHC (Ocean Heat Content)
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
oisst_1d_tropatl_2021052900
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
oisst_anom_1d_globe_2021052900
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
tcheat_atlantic_2021052912
Ocean heat content basically, in part has to do with the depth of the 26.0C isotherm.  Values of 50+ will support major hurricane activity and rapid intensification, provided ALL other conditions are favorable.

Based on analysis of certain forecast factors, we COULD (COULD, not WILL) see an increased possibility of some type of development.  While some of the phase space diagrams forecasts for the MJO indicate the MJO heading toward phase 2 by most of the ensemble members in some of the modeling, the signal shows up weak, mainly in the control.  Some ensemble members do indicate a little stronger signal.  The GFS filtered VP200 (Velocity Potential) forecast indicates a favorable MJO pattern during the next 2 weeks, and the ECMWF Control and EPS Mean output indicates a fairly strong signal, and the JMA showing favorable conditions as well.  This means upward vertical motion in the upper atmosphere at around 200 mb, which is conducive for tropical development:
GFS MJO FORECAST
twc_globe_mjo_vp200
ECMWF EPS MEAN AND CONTROL 200MB CHI ANOMALY FORECAST(GREEN INDICATES CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT)
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021053000_CONTROL_360
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021053000_MEAN_360
JMA CHI200 FORECAST
jma.1
jma.2

What this is all leading up to is, IF the MJO comes into phase 2 with a decent signal, it usually indicates some type of development in or near the Gulf of Mexico.  The following diagram displays the different phases of the MJO, and the red and orange areas indicate where development generally occurs:
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITART
Now, analysis of the global models doesn’t indicate development over the next 7 days or so.  However, the GFS in the long range (to where I do not like going) develops a tropical system down in the Caribbean, and brings it up into the GOMEX as a tropical storm.  The ECMWF EPS does not indicate any probability during the next 10 – 12 DAYS.
GFS LONG RANGE ANIMATION
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1622376000-1623283200-1623412800-40
ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_288
Now, the only problem I have with the GFS is, models tend to lose accuracy beyond 7 days (to which I prefer not to go out beyond 5 – 7 days), and the GFS is the ONLY global model indicating favorable conditions such as no appreciable shear, and a favorable 200 mb streamline pattern (upper outflow).  Now, normally I would “poo poo” this, and even though it is in the long range, I cannot totally rule this out.  Here’s why…the ENSEMBLE models and for the most part the global models (control) have been indicating a 500 mb pattern that favors development somewhere in the GOMEX.  The following maps indicate rising pressure heights around the extreme NE U. S. / Newfoundland, or a ridge of high pressure.  This is what we meteorologist affectionately term the “ridge over troubled water”, given the fact that when a ridge builds to the north like this, pressures naturally tend to “fall” or lower south of the ridging.   The flow goes from higher pressure to lower pressure. This ridge is also known as the “Newfoundland wheel”.  This feature is what contributed to the main steering flow for hurricane Hazel back in 1954.   So, based on the forecast 500 mb setup, which has been consistent over the past few days, we generally get a setup for development as shown by the GFS animation.
ECMWF ENS (MEAN)
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-z500_anom-3196800
ECMWF ENS (CONTROL)
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-exatl-z500_anom-3196800
ECMWF OPERATIONAL
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-z500_anom-3196800
GFS OPERATIONAL 500 MB ANOMALY
gfs-deterministic-exatl-z500_anom-3326400
Again, this is 10 – 12 days out in the forecast period, and as I stated, it is possible, however I want to see other models pick up on a “surface” feature.  So, this is pretty much a heads up to me, to continue to monitor the GOMEX and pattern over the next few days, and look for more models to jump on board and look for run to run consistency.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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