TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 14, 2021…8:10 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 14, 2021…8:10 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:  20
TOTAL HURRICANES:          7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS:    8

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

The following is the supplemental list for the 2021 hurricane season:
Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, and Will.

As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note…when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

Good evening everyone,
The following is a satellite animation of the Atlantic basin
ATLANTIC
tropatl
Analysis this evening of the ECMWF and GFS global models currently indicates no tropical development over the next 7 days.  However, looking at the ECMWF EPS and GEFS, the ensembles seem to be sniffing out the probability of some possible increase in activity in the W. Caribbean by the 22nd of this month, and there has been some consistency in this.  While this is within the medium range, and may not yet be totally ruled out, analysis of various MJO forecast tools tend to indciate the thought of activity picking up at the mid month point in my last tropical weather outlook synopsis, has been pushed back closer to the last week of Oct.
ECMWF EPS AND GEFS CURRENT FORECAST
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-caribbean-mslp_ens_min-1634212800-1634817600-1634990400-80
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-caribbean-mslp_ens_min-1634212800-1634731200-1634882400-80
Analysis of the updated JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast from the JMA, MJO phase space diagram forecasts, and MJO forecast map (GFS input) indicate the strongest, more favorable upward vertical velocity signal to be over the GOMEX / Caribbean area after the 23rd / 24th of the month.  Should this come to fruition, we SHOULD see an increase in convective activity starting the last week of the month.  Based on analysis of both the JMA CHI200 forecast, and ECMWF EPS mean, the MJO appears to swing into a weak phase 1 to phase 2 signal
JMA CHI200 ANOMALY FORECAST WEEK 1, WEEK 2, WEEK 3 & 4, AND 28 DAY MEAN
jma.1
jma.2
jma.3
jma.4
ECMWF EPS MEAN
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021101412_MEAN_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021101412_MEAN_360
The yellow lines in the following MJO phase space diagrams indicate the model ensemble members
JMA
JMAN_phase_51m_full
ECMWF
ECMF_phase_51m_full
ECMWF ENSEMBLE
EMON_phase_51m_small
MJO FORECAST (GFS INPUT)
twc_globe_mjo_vp200
The following graphic indicates the MJO phases
MJO DIAGRAM
mjo. phases
The following graphic indicates where development (red and orange areas) is most likely to occur during the various MJO phases:
VITART GRAPHIC
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITART
Analysis of the current 850 mb map indicates the EPAC Monsoon trough to be located just W of Central America by 120 hours.  I’ll be monitoring this feature, to see if it crosses into Central America / BOC after 120 hours, becoming the CAG (Central American Gyre)
GFS 850 MB FORECAST 120 HOURS
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
image-33

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
Heath
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
Jacobus
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)Lucio

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

satellite animation

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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