TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 17, 2021…4:15 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 17, 2021…4:15 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

The tropics still remain quiet.  Satellite imagery indicates a lack of any real activity in the Atlantic basin.  You’ll notice all the dry air over the basin as indicate by red and orange colors in water vapor imagery:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION
20037413
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
20037413wv
AFRICA SATELLITE VIEW
us_sat-en-087-0_2021_07_17_18_30_641_126
I really have no change to speak of since my last synopsis.  The MJO still remains in a suppressed phase, and the forecast based on CHI200 anomaly forecast maps still indicates this phase to remain in place until the end of the month, to possibly the first week of Aug.
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALY FORECAST (CONTROL AND MEAN)
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071700_CONTROL_360
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2021071700_MEAN_360
JMA CHI200 FORECAST MAPS (ATLANTIC BASIN AT 60W AND EASTWARD)
jma.1
jma.2
jma.3
twc_globe_mjo_vp200

The following links are articles on the MJO, explaining pretty much what it is, and how it affects tropical weather.
MJO EXPLAINED
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml
The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) remains pretty active with a good amount of dust coming across the Atlantic.  When the SAL is heavy like this, it does two things.   It can block sunlight from reaching the ocean, which in turn will not allow for any increase in SST’s, AND, because the dust is very warm, it creates what we term an “inversion” in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
CAPPINGINVERSION
An inversion keeps warm air from rising any further in the atmosphere once the ELR (Environmental Lapse Rate) begins to reverse.  Hence, no vertical cloud formation.  Without cloud formation, we cannot get waves to survive.  For clouds to develop, warm air has to rise to its condensation (LCL = Lifted Condensation Level) point.  Given the suppressed phase of the MJO, and heavy dust concentrations, these are most likely the contributing factors to the MDR vertical instability being so well below climatology.
In the following natural color graphics from CIMSS, you should be able to detect dust over the Atlantic.
CIMSS NATURAL COLOR SATELLITE IMAGES
g16nc-1
g16nc-2
RGB AIRMASS
g16airmass-1
MDR VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_THDV
NASA GEOS SAL 5 DAY FORECAST
nasa-geos-all-exatl-dust-1626480000-1626480000-1626912000-40Based on my analysis of the current forecast conditions, I really do not anticipate development, or increase in activity until approximately the first week of Aug, maybe even the second week of Aug., depending on how conditions actually pan out.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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