TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 22, 2021…8:35 P.M. EDT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 22, 2021…8:35 P.M. EDT


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 5
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.

The tropics still remain pretty quiet, with the exception of the area the NHC has marked in their outlook map..  Satellite imagery indicates a lack of any real activity in the Atlantic basin MDR.  You’ll notice all the dry air over the basin as indicate by red and orange colors in water vapor imagery:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION IR AND WATER VAPOR


AFRICA SATELLITE VIEW

The NHC has marked a trof of low pressure, associated with a stationary front at the moment, along the coast of GA.  This area is forecast to push offshore later this evening.  The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability of cyclone development for this feature over the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

SATELLITE ANIMATION

Analysis of the current CIMSS wind shear product indicates shear is below 20 knots over the area at the moment, and upper level winds indicate a semi-anticyclonic flow, which you can note in the above satellite animation.   However, vorticity is only noted at 925 to 850 mb level, being most pronounced at 850 mb.  Analysis of the global models ECMWF and GFS do not really develop this as of yet, but do indicate further in the, that a broad area of lowering MSLP normalized anomalies takes shape south and west.  Both models indicate wind shear to remain marginal over the next 72 hours, with some possible relaxing thereafter up to 96 hours in the period.  Both models tend to indicate this feature to move toward the south, then retrograde back over GA/SC., before probabilities become much lower, and the area moving off toward the NE.  Humidity values are forecast to remain fairly favorable, with the exception of the mid levels becoming drier as this feature retrogrades.  At this time, I agree with the NHC probability, and I myself, would not go any higher, unless the forecast conditions improve to show a more favorable environment over the next 48 hours.  The ECMWF EPS gives this a 40% chance for development at the moment.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST ANIMATION


ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST ANIMATION

I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, as stated, the Tropical Atlantic remains quiet.  The JMA ensemble model updated today and the new forecast is out for the for the MJO.  For the current week, a suppressive phase remains over the African continent, but shows conditions improving over Africa during week 2, however showing suppression over the Caribbean and GOMEX.  Week 3 and 4 show pretty much neutral conditions over the MDR, Caribbean and GOMEX, with a weak enhanced signal over Africa.  The ECMWF EPS CHI200 forecast is a little more forgiving with a stronger signal over Africa during JUL 27 – AUG 01, through to AUG 06, however indicating a suppressed signal from 50W, westward to the GOMEX.  This could have affect on what type of wave activity we could see.
JMA CHI200 FORECAST JUL 25 – JUL 31

JMA CHI200 AUG 01 – AUG 14

JMA CHI200 AUG 15 – AUG 28

ECMWF EPS CHI200 FORECAST MAPS


However, I researched 2 past hurricane seasons (2005 and 2019).  Both of these years as we know, were active seasons.  In 2005, OCT saw 7 total storms develop.  You will notice in the MJO phase space diagram for OCT – DEC of 2005, the MJO had a very weak to null signal:
MJO OCT – DEC 2005

2019 was the opposite with 10 storms between AUG and SEP, with a weak to null MJO phase
MJO JUL – SEP 2019

IF the MJO plays out to provide a more favorable vertical velocity potential by AUG., we should see an increase in tropical wave activity.  I will be monitoring conditions closely beginning next week for any significant changes should they occur.  Right now however, I am not expecting any development, or increase in wave activity for the remainder of this month.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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